Inertia Audit™Behavioral Intelligence
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Transformation Risk Simulator

Stress-test your rollout before the org does it for you.

Pick a rollout strategy, tell us about your organization with four sliders, and watch the success probability, adoption curve, and risk tree update in real time. Every number on this page is explained — and you can override any assumption with your own figures.

  1. Pick a strategy. Each strategy (Phased, Big Bang, Pilot) has a base success rate, timeline, cost multiplier, and resistance shock drawn from public benchmarks (Prosci, McKinsey, Gartner, BCG, Standish CHAOS).
  2. Tune the four sensitivity sliders to match your context. They adjust the base success rate up or down:success = base − (inertia × resistance) + (sponsorship × 0.22) − (fatigue × 0.18) + (budget × 0.08)
  3. Read the outputs. The S-curve shows expected adoption month-by-month. Monte Carlo runs 1,000 simulated rollouts with random noise to show the spread of outcomes. The probability tree decomposes the success / failure paths.
  4. Don't trust the defaults? Toggle Advanced — use my own figures in the left panel and override the strategy's base success, timeline, cost, and resistance with numbers from your own program.

Strategy

Sequenced waves across business units. Lower peak resistance, longer realization.

Timeline

14 mo

Cost mult.

1.00×

Base success

72%

Toggle on to override the preset's timeline, cost, base success, and resistance with numbers from your own program.

Sensitivity Inputs · how your org modifies the base rate

62

How resistant your org is to change today. Higher = more antibodies. Pulled from your audit if you ran one.

55

Strength & visibility of C-level air-cover. Strong sponsorship adds up to +22 pts.

48

How many concurrent change programs employees are already absorbing. Subtracts up to −18 pts.

60

Cushion above the baseline budget for overruns & contingency. Adds up to +8 pts.

Forecast — Phased Rollout

59% success

AT RISK

Timeline

14 mo

Est. adoption

59%

Failure prob.

41%

Adoption Trajectory · expected vs. confidence band

Sensitivity · impact on success %

Inertia (ISI)-5 pts
Executive sponsorship+3 pts
Change fatigue-3 pts
Budget headroom+1 pts

Monte Carlo · 1,000 simulated rollouts

Probability Tree · branch outcomes

Sponsorship holds → Inertia absorbed

→ Full adoption

46%

Sponsorship holds → Inertia spike

→ Partial adoption

13%

Sponsorship erodes → Pilot recovery

→ Reset & rescope

17%

Sponsorship erodes → Stalled rollout

→ Initiative shelved

25%